Tool

Implied probability calculator

Convert a prediction market price into an approximate probability before accounting for fees, spreads, liquidity, and settlement risk.

Convert price to probability

Enter a price to calculate implied probability.

How to read it

A 62 cent Yes price roughly implies a 62% probability before market frictions. Fees, spreads, low liquidity, and unclear resolution criteria can make the real trading outcome different.

Use the calculator as research context, not as a trade signal.

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