Guide

How prediction markets work

A plain-English guide to prediction market prices, probability, settlement rules, and platform risk.

Prices reflect crowd expectations

A prediction market price can be read as an implied probability, but it is still shaped by liquidity, fees, market access, and trader incentives.

Resolution criteria matter

Before using any market, read the exact settlement rules. Small wording differences can change how a market resolves.

Availability is not universal

Prediction market access depends on the platform, jurisdiction, account rules, and market type.

ForecastIndex is informational

The site compares platforms and tools. It does not provide investment, legal, or trading advice.

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